Earthquake and the Internet

As some of you may heard, the normally seismically boring Plain States (that's what I'm calling the part of the country where I live) have had a number of tremors over these past few weeks.  The epicenters have been between Oklahoma City and Tulsa and all have scored under 6 on the Richter scale.  This past Saturday evening one of them was large enough that we felt it here in Wichita.

I was mostly asleep and was waken by the shaking of our bed. The shaking was minor enough that I thought one of our dogs had broken out of its kennel and was up on our bed busy trying to relieve an itch.  The fog cleared in  my mind to realize that probably wasn't likely; I then noticed our rafters were popping and cracking like the wind was blowing heavily.  This wind, though, was very rythmic in nature and just so happened to be blowing in a way to match the vibrations of our bed.

My mind was still futily trying to figure out what was going on and I asked my wife if she was casuing this rucus.  I have long suspected her of having superpowers but she flatly denied responsibilty. 

The shaking stopped; she and I stared at each other in the dark, not knowing how to respond. 

"That was an earthquake."  I knew I was right the moment I said it but how to confirm this?  I read a newspaper article yesterday that said over 300 residents of my fair city called 911 to report the news or ask for confirmation.  I was almost one of these but realized the operators probably wouldn't appreciate the call and weren't seismological experts.  Local TV news?  Maybe, but I'd have to get out of bed for that and who knows what they would say.  There was a computer right by the bed so I grabbed it and started trolling the internet looking for an authoritative source that would provide details.  After several minutes of general searching I tried the United States Geological Survey website and a few more mintues after that found this page.

In less that 10 minutes I knew that yes, there had been an earthquake just minutes before, the epicenter was down in Oklahoma and it was significantly larger than many of the recent quakes in the same area.

The USGS has a great website that put the data up quickly.  The internet made the data available quickly.  We had our confusion oblviated quickly and fell back asleep.

Published

Sometime in the past few weeks I officially began my career as recognized academic: my paper got published.  The paper in question was one I submitted for the conference in Detroit at the end of July and for reasons that I don't understand it took them roughly three months to get it posted online.

But here it is.

As circumstances would have it, just yesterday I started writing the paper I'll be submitting for the 2012 session of the same conference.  The deadline is the end of the month and I've got all the research done; all that's left is the process of assembling the words in a clear and helpful manner.  This paper will be on a completely different topic: rather than dealing with wind turbines I'm looking at the effect on the electrical distribution system of the addition of a significant amount of generation.  Said differently, when a bunch of people, businesses, and manufacturers install solar panels and wind turbines, how does that affect the operation of the neighborhood electrical system?  Traditionally power flows from the big generators to the customers but in this case, if enough people install solar panels, that flow may end up reversed.

(For the power nerds out there, here are the details. Due to the effective limitation in IEEE 1547-2003, inverters can only contribute real power to the distribution feeder.  At high penetration levels this could lead to a case where real power is flowing towards the substation but reactive power is still having to be supplied by the substation and/or capacitors on the feeder.  My paper seeks to discover if this counter-flow between real and reactive power is a significant issue or not.)

My greatest fear is going through the process of submitting it through the IEEE website.  Last year it was a torturous process due to an unspecified problem with how their software interpreted the files I sent over. Now that I'm aware of the problem I'm going to try to get it all squared away before I submit it but there is a lot out of my control and I expect there will be problems once again.

Federal Tax Burden

The Occupy protests sparked my curiosity yesterday with their "99%" slogan.  Specifically, it got me thinking about tax burden in the United States as it relates to income. I did some digging around this morning and came up with some data from the Congressional Budget Office and put together a chart that confirmed by suspicions.

The above chart splits the US population into fifths and shows the percentage of total federal tax dollars each group would be paying under two different taxation systems: a simple flat tax (outer ring) and the 2006 tax structure (inner ring).  Again, this is all about actual federal tax dollars, not about marginal tax rates.

The data on the 2006 tax structure comes directly from the CBO.  To calculate the (highly) theoretical flat tax revenues, I used the CBO numbers for average income for each income bracket  and population for each income bracket.  I chose to compare the actual 2006 data to a theoretical flat tax not because I am necessarily a proponent of such a system but because a flat tax is probably the simplest tax structure. Everybody pays a certain percentage of their income, no matter where the money comes from or how much they make. (Because of this fact, in doing my tax revenue calculations, the proportion each income bracket pays is unaffected by the flat tax rate.  The total number of tax dollars would be, though.)

Items of note:

1. Even under a flat tax, the richest 20% of tax-payers will provide over half the tax dollars the federal government collects.  The obvious reason for this is that the richest 20% make a lot more money; 10% (for example) of $1,000,000 dollars is a lot more than 10% of $10,000.
2. In 2006, the richest 20% paid ~70% of all the federal tax dollars.
3. The poorest 20% hardly paid any of the federal tax dollars in 2006 (~0.8%).  Under a flat tax they would pay ~4%; this would be a five-fold increase in their tax rate.
4. If we moved to a flat tax, everybody's tax rate would go up (each group would be expected to pay for a larger portion of the total tax revenue) except for the richest 20%; their's would do down.

I'll leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.

Results from Measuring Household Temperatures for Most of the Summer

The temperature measurement system I installed in late June has been running for several months now with only minor problems and with the highs now in the 80s, two of the experiments I've been running over the summer have come to a close and I'd like to share the results.

Let's do the easy one first: attic temperature.  A month or so after I got the temperature system going we could see that our attic was getting quite warm on those hot days, often above 130'F.  I talked with my wife about it, we did some reading, and decided that adding a bit more ventilation would be good idea.  The cost would be minimal and we hoped it would lower the difference between the outside air and the attic.  Thankfully it did; the results are below.

The difference between the old and new ventilation is pretty clear: adding the ventilation did lower the temperature difference between the outside and attic air. The statistics show a nine degree cooling in the attic by adding the extra ventilation.  (For you statistics nerds, the sample size is ~25 for both conditions, and standard deviation is ~5 degrees.)

The other experiment I ran was based on a conversation I had at a cook-out over the summer.  One of the gals there said her father was a HVAC guy and that he recommended keeping a constant set-point during the summer; that is, don't turn the AC off when the house is unoccupied.  It was hard for me to believe that this would use the same amount of electricity as a more "conservative" approach of turning it off when gone but I realized I didn't actually have anything more than opinion to back up my assertion.  Time to do some science.

I decided to test this theory and added a sensor that would show me when the central fan in our house was running.  The fan only kicks on when the air conditioning (or furnace) are on and so this allowed me to measure how long the air-conditioner ran during a given 24-hour period.  I semi-randomly changed the programming on our thermostat to either hold a constant temperature all day or to turn the AC back shortly before we got home from work and school.  Here's an example of each:

The yellow line at the bottom is the state of the fan: 55'F is on, 15'F is off.  For a day when the AC was on a schedule, it turned off around 7am and would come back on around 2:30pm in an attempt to get the house down the temperature by 5pm when we came got home.  You can see the purple (kitchen) and cyan (hallway) lines rise throughout the day and then when the AC comes on in the afternoon, begin descending.

When we kept the thermostat constant all day, the AC cycles to keep the temperature in the house at the thermostat set point. The purple and cyan lines stay at an even value throughout the day.  (You'll notice the basement sensor is relatively unaffected by the AC.  This is why everybody should have a basement if they live in a place that gets hot.  Basements are the best.)

After a summer of running both cases, here are the results.

The results are much more mixed than I would expect.  I think to make any good conclusions a statistical linear regression would need to be done; I haven't done that yet and probably won't ever get around to it.  Its clear that the run-time of the AC is strongly related to the peak temperature for the day.  This should be no surprise to anybody.  It is less clear which thermostat schedule uses less energy.  For the very hot days (> ~105'F) you could make a pretty good case that turning the AC off when you're gone at work will save some energy.  For days when the highs are less than 100'F, though, it seems there is very little difference between the two cases.

These results are surprising to me.  I would have expected that keeping the AC off for seven or eight hours a day would cause it to run less in the grand scheme of things.  It may but the difference isn't huge. I may try repeating this experiment next summer, just to see how it turns out.  I guess the good news is that if you're home all day with kids or work you don't have to feel too guilty about having the air-conditioner running the whole time; its not killing your bill much worse than the rest of us.

New Skylight

For the past few weeks I've been "in-progess" on installing a tubular skylight for the stairwell leading to our basement. There was been no overhead light from the day we bought it which means the stairs were always dark. No longer the case: I give you before and after pictures taken at the same exposure for an apples-to-apples comparison.

Both of these above photos are deceptive; it wasn't that dark before and isn't that heavenly bright now. Such are the limitations of the dynamic range of today's digital cameras. Below is something that is more akin to how my eyes perceive it now.

The installation spanned multiple weeks due an unconventional installation that lead to needing extra parts only available online. These tubular skylights use a dome on the roof to collect sunlight and then channel that light through highly polished and reflective tubes to an opening in the interior ceiling. Due to the stairwell's location, to get the dome on the west side of the roof (where it would get the most sunlight) meant making a very non-direct route for the light to follow from the dome to the ceiling opening.

The hardest part in all of this was determining which extra parts I would need and if the installation would work at all. You couldn't do a test fitting with all the pieces until they arrived and that didn't happen until I knew which parts needed to be ordered. Very chicken and egg. I think if I had all the parts in hand, it wouldn't have taken me more than five hours to complete the project.

This is the second such skylight in our house and we are very happy with them both. When we bought the house there was one in the dining room and we were so happy with it we decided to try this one. I don't know why it took us this long to get around to it but now its done.

I think there's a good chance the hallway will get one as well.

The Midwest

Shown below is one of many large displays on campus used for things like campus announcements, latest headlines from the news, and weather forecasts including the weather radar for our region.

Note the title on the left: "Midwest Radar".

Note the emphasis on "west" by including Idaho, Utah, Arizona and even a small part of California on the map.

Note the lack of inclusion of many traditional Midwest locations such as the states of Illinois (and of particular note, Chicago), Michigan (including Detroit), Indiana and Ohio.

At least now I know that Kansas is officially in the Midwest. Along with New Mexico.

Storm Damage

Last night we had a severe thunderstorm roll through the area, causing damage throughout the city. Winds were up to 70 mph, 2.25 inches of rain. We lost power around 10pm and it was eventually restored by 4:30 pm. We had minor damage to our fence but many of our neighbors had much greater damage. Here are a few pictures I took while wandering the neighborhood, waiting for power to come back.

Evidence of the large amount of rainfall: the high water mark of leaves in people's yards. The street would have had to be completely flooded for the water to get this far into the yard.

This street light was pulled down by a limb from a tree limb that fell and landed on the power line for the light.

I'm guessing the damage at this utility pole was the cause of the loss of power in our neighborhood. Our block is fed through these lines and as you can see, several were snapped (again, by falling tree limbs).

Two Nerd Ideas from the Nerd Conference

As I mentioned previously, I spend the first half of last week in Detroit at a conference for those of us in the power and energy part of electrical engineering. There were many interesting topics discussed, two of which I thought might be interesting to the general public.

The first is not something that is actually a new idea but rather one expressed in a new-ish way. About a year ago it first came to my attention that people outside the electrical power industry probably don't realize that there is virtually no energy storage in our power system. (There are a few exceptions but not enough to matter much.) No energy storage means that whenever you turn on a light in your house, some generator somewhere has to produce a tiny bit more power immediately. There is no way to produce a bunch of energy ahead of time and serve it up as needed later. My professor said it this way: "The electrical energy industry is the only manufacturer whose goods are consumed the instant they are produced."

Using this manufacturing analogy, you can think of any time a light is turned on or an air-conditioner starts up as an "order" being placed to the electrical company for some energy. Unlike every other manufacturer, though, the delivery of the good must be made immediately. None of us would accept a situation where a light switch is flipped and the light turns on minutes, hours, or days later. When we want energy we want it now. Thankfully, physics also makes the same requirement and the energy will either flow immediately or not at all. We'll never get an email from the power company confirming our energy order to run our air conditioner with an estimated delivery date of next week (or the ability to pay extra for two-day shipping).

It is actually possible for the electrical energy companies to fail to provide the right amount of energy in two ways: undersupply and oversupply. Undersupply is something we've all experienced in some way as brownouts and/or blackouts. Actually, a true blackout due to a lack of energy being produced is fairly rare; most of the time when our houses loose power its due to other event like damage to equipment due to a storm. This past winter, though, Texas had some customers in blackout due to a combination of unexpected down-time on some of its generators and unusually cold weather causing customers to turn up their electric heaters.

On the other end of the spectrum are oversupply situations which may not seem as bad. What does it matter if the generators produce more power than we use? The answer to this is a tiny bit technical and it relates to the frequency of the system operation. Without worrying about the details, I'll simply say that all the generators are designed to run at 60 Hz and everything we plug into an outlet expects power at 60 Hz and if more energy is generated than used, the frequency begins to drift up and bad things begin to happen. 60 Hz is the standard and deviation from that standard isn't good for anybody.

All of this I've laid out so far can be summarized in one sentence: at all times, electrical energy supply (from generators) must match electrical energy demand (by consumers). This is the definition of stable system operation. Balancing supply and demand turns out to be very complicated for many reasons, not the least of which is that demand by consumers varies throughout the day and year and that demand can change suddenly. There is much effort being made to predict the amount of electrical energy that will be needed but theses efforts will always be imperfect. (Here's a graph for the California system showing the predicted and actual demand for the day showing this imperfection.) The result of this is that electrical system operators need to always have generators standing by to pick up any extra demand that may suddenly appear. These generators have to be able to respond instantaneously (not in a minutes, or fifteen seconds, or even five seconds) to changes in demand which means they have to be fully up and running responding quickly as the demand on the system changes. What's more, there have to be still other power plants that are not fully online but able to ramp up their output quickly if even larger changes in demand begin to form.

All of this say one simple thing: there are many many more generators in our electrical system than are needed for most days of the year. Many of these generators are not regularly used or do not produce their full output power most of the time. In fact, some of them may only be used during the peak demand for the year, during the hottest days of the summer. Going back to our factory analogy, this is the equivalent of building a factory so that it is able to produce enough goods during the peak Christmas season even though the rest of the year much of the factory will be idle. It all comes back to the fact that there is no energy storage in our system. There is no ability to produce a bunch of energy and put it in a warehouse to be shipped out when needed.

This leads to the second idea I heard at the conference: electric vehicles and their batteries. As these vehicles become more popular and affordable, we are going to start seeing the introduction of non-trivial energy storage introduced to our electrical energy system via the large battery packs in these cars. There is a lot of talk concerning the use of the battery packs in the cars to provide backup power for your house or even electric utility companies paying the car-owners to use that energy for whatever needs the grid may have at a given point in time. There are many interesting ideas floating around out there and all of them will help the system run more efficiently but there are still a lot of details to be worked out; I'm not going to discuss any of them.

I'm going to talk about what we do with the batteries once they have reached the end of life for use in cars. Again, due to physics (and in this case chemistry) batteries that are useless for electric vehicles are far from dead. The figure I heard thrown around was 80%; battery packs in electric vehicles will be removed once, when full charged, they only have 80% of their original design capacity. This means these batteries still have a lot of life left in them, just not for transportation purposes. Many smart people are considering a second-life use for these batteries as distributed energy storage in neighborhoods going by the name "community energy storage" (CES). If these batteries can be repackaged and assembled economically into large battery banks, they could be put out in neighborhoods and act as energy storage distributed all over the grid. From the utility's perspective there are many things that could be done with these battery packs, most of which we as normal people don't care that much about. What we do care about is not losing power and these battery packs could solve that problem; we would have neighborhood-wide battery-backup with the potential to have virtually uninterrupted power.

The other implication of this second life for car batteries is that it may help lower the cost of electric vehicles. If there is a well-established market for "used" electric vehicle batteries, when the time comes to replace those batteries, the car owner may get 80% of the value of a new battery pack by selling the old one. Using made up numbers, if a battery pack costs $10,000 when new but can be resold when its "dead" for $8,000, the net cost to the care owner is only $2,000 for the battery pack in his or her electric car. Batteries in electric cars are a significant cost-driver and having a way to recoup those costs could make electric vehicles more affordable.

Conference in Detroit

The front half of this past week I spent in Detroit at a conference, the General Meeting for the IEEE Power and Engineering Society. The meeting is held ever year with the purpose of presenting the results from the research work being done by universities and actual implementation of these ideas by energy utility companies. In addition, there are a long list of meetings held by the various committees, sub-committies, working groups and task forces addressing current the areas of concern in the power and energy world. At any given moment there are dozens of meetings taking place and just figuring out which meetings and presentations to attend takes a significant amount of work; there's a paperback-sized conference guide that is (poorly) designed to help attendees navigate all the options.

The content of the conference meetings and presentations was great; it was very helpful to hear work being presented by the authors themselves as well as presentations from people who don't traditionally publish and thus aren't normally directly visible to academics like me. I'll write more about this later but for now you can safely assume it was nerdy in nature.

So until I get that put together, here's a little show-and-tell from the few days I spent there. I would have put this up earlier but the internet access at the hotel was not up to the onslaught of 500 graduate electrical engineering students.

Most of the conference meetings were held in this building, the GM Renaissance Center. Based on my wanderings in the building, it appears to multi-purpose. My guess is that all of the building you can see in this picture is office space, maybe mostly used by GM? The lower levels house a Marriot hotel, retail space, conference rooms and a show-floor for the latest products from GM.

Here's a view of the lower levels. The sky bridge shown here connected the hotel I was staying in with the Marriot hotel in the Renaissance Center where the conference was being held. I barely went outside during the conference, walking back and forth between the two buildings. I know that Detroit is going through some tough times but the view from my daily commute between the two buildings revealed none of that.

The interior of the lower levels was very open with suspended walkways between the five different towers of the building.

Down on the showroom floor I got my first look at the Chevy Volt, the car every electrical engineer wants to own. I took this photo because I noticed that the grill normally used to allow outside air to enter the engine compartment and cool the engine no longer did so; it was entirely decorative and non-functional. The Volt does have a gasoline engine that is used to charge batteries but it is rather small and as you can tell from the picture, it isn't located in the traditional front-and-center location in the engine compartment.

Every morning all the cars in the showroom on the ground floor get a cleaning.

I'm revealing my ignorance of geography but who moved Canada across the strait from Detroit? There is it, just a drive through a tunnel and you're in another country. Windsor, Canada also hosts a very visible Harrah's casino.

More frivolously, the hotel I stayed in seemed to be missing several floors. My room was on the 14th floor and the elevators in the hotel were the fastest I've ever ridden. My guess is it took less than ten seconds to travel from the ground floor to the floor labelled "14", however high up that actually is.

And my pet peeve for the trip: the air conditioner in my room. The hotel had central air rather than an individual unit in each room. This cut down on the noise which is certainly nice but in this case there seemed to be a critical design flaw. The vent at the top dumped could air into the room and the vent at the bottom pulled the air out; in-between was the thermostat. First of all, having the outlet and inlet for the room so close together doesn't encourage circulation of the air throughout the entire room. Secondly, putting the thermostat between the two does accurately measure the temperature of the air as it moves from outlet to inlet but not as much the temperature of the room. Due to these two design choices it was very hard for the AC to do a good job of actually cooling the room. It did a great job of cooling the space between those two vents, though.

Impression Planting

A friend of mine pointed me towards this video on Youtube of an impressionist doing a speech from Shakespeare in a variety of characters. The video is below but here is my challenge to you: close your eyes, listen to the audio, and see how many of the famous characters you can identify. Once your done, go back and watch the video (where the names of each character are given) and see how you did.

Here's my theory: the impressionist, though highly skilled, is relying on your existing knowledge of the characters to fill out his impression and make it seem more realistic. When you don't know who you're supposed to be thinking of, the impression is not as strong and it is harder to know who he is impersonating. This is not to detract from his incredible performance, just wondering how much of the impression we as audience members are providing ourselves.

Anyway, take the test and let me know which ones you got before looking at the answer key. My wife got three on her own.

Dogs and the Frog

A frog happened to wander its way into our backyard. Our dogs found it. The poor frog will remember this day for a while (assuming he makes it out alive).

UPDATE: NPR has a great little story about one dog and her dealings with the frogs (or rather, toads) in her life.

Basement Sensor

My previously mentioned tutor and nerd mentor who enabled me to get started on this project took one look at my code and found the mistake that was keeping the basement sensor from working properly. Making its first-time ever screen appearance, I give you: the Basement Temperature (brown line).

The next problem to solve: why all the "noise" in the data during the second half of the day? We have a few guesses but don't have any firm convictions at this point but we're assuming that something is happening to drive a single measurement to an unreasonable level. The proposed fix is to throw out all unrealistic measurements either based on absolute limits (no temperatures greater than 200'F and less than -30'F) or a relative limit (no temperature change more than 50 degrees away from the previous measurement). This will complicate the code slightly but, hey, that's what nerd friends are for.

Whole-House Fan and Attic Temperature

A year or so ago we installed an Airscape whole-house fan. The fan is supposed to provide cooling to the house in two ways:

1. Pulling cool air from the outside into the living area, replacing the air in the house as well as cooling the interior structure of the house.
2. Displacing the highly heated air in the attic with cooler air from the outside (via the house).

We've been very happy with the cooling the fan provides to the living area of the house but we've had to simply assume that the fan was adequately cooling the attic.

Until now.

With the installation of my super-nerdy temperature measurement system, we now have proof that the fan is doing its job. Last night we turned it on as we we're going to bed, knowing the overnight lows would be cool enough to provide benefit. Looking at the graph, you can see around 10pm when the fan turns on the attic temperature (green) drops pretty quickly.

Nice the see our assumptions were correct.

Nerd Project: Household Temperatures

I spent most of Saturday crawling around the attic and drilling small holes in the ceiling to complete a project I've been batting around for over a year now. Since we put in our whole-house fan (about a year and a half ago) I've been curious to see what effect the fan would have in reducing the temperature in our attic. This got me thinking about temperature regulation in our house in general: the basement having much smaller changes in temperature during both the winter and the summer, the temperature in the two bedrooms we've don't used and have closed off, how much cooking in the kitchen heats the house, et cetera.

Enabled by a friend of mine who loaned me a critical piece of hardware (because he's even nerdier than me and had extras just laying around his house), I built a little system that measures the temperature in six locations around our house throughout the day. This collection of little programs creates an internal webpage that shows the current temperature for all six locations in the house and every morning creates a graph of the previous day's data and adds a link to that graph on the webpage.

Here's an example from yesterday.

A few items of note:

• The dark blue line for our garage shows a little ramp starting around 5:30am. This is when we started the clothes drier which vents into our garage and thus, warms it up. My wife has been interested to see how pronounced this effect is and whether we need to try to modify the venting so it dumps the air outside.
• The spike in the purple line a little after 6pm is dinner being cooked. Again, another wife-requested measurement.
• You can see attic (green) gets very hot during the day, hotter than the outside temperature. It was too hot yesterday to run the whole-house fan so there was no circulation in the attic. This data seems to suggest that getting some kind of attic fan that ventilates the attic better throughout the day may help in keeping the house cooler. We've got a fair amount of insulation but with the temperature knocking around 130'F during the peak of the day when the outside air is barely at 90'F, it seems like our attic could be acting as a heat source and some of that heat is sure to be leaking its ways back into our house.
• Relatedly, the garage is definitely getting warmer than the outside our throughout the day as well. More insulation between the garage and the house would help but an easier solution may be to open the garage doors to allow the air to ventilate. There are plenty of hot days left in the summer to try this.

This system has been running for a few days now with only minor hitches. The biggest bug is that I something is wrong the basement measurements. I know the sensor is good as it was the first (and easiest) one to install and I used it as a proof-of-concept. I've been talking with my nerd-enabling friend and we've got a few ideas I'm going to pursue. I'm also a bit perplexed at how noisy the data is at times. The indoor data (kitchen and hallway) seem very smooth but the rest vary much more than I would expect. Maybe its not noise and the temperatures do vary that much.

Aside from adding a few more sensors (closed-off rooms, maybe the bedroom and the living room), I would also like to add sensors that detect when the whole-house fan is running and when the air-conditioning/furnace fan is running. I hope to get those last two in sometime this summer but I need to figure out the best/easiest way to do it.

I'll write another post soon in a few days detailing the specifics of how the system is put together for any fellow nerd out there who is interested.

Infant Rabbit Update

After about 24-hours of peace and quiet away from Anise, our little guys seemed to be doing fine (psychological damage aside) and so we decided to release him back into the wilds of our backyard. He spent the first hour or so just huddled in the grass. By the time I was leaving for work he was starting to be a bit mobile and explore around. When I came back from work, he was gone. Here's hoping he survived.

Anise did find a sibling of our friend (also under the deck) and after using it as a toy for a few minutes, managed to kill it. I buried it in the side yard out of Anise's prying nose and paws.

Hopefully this is the last of our infant-rabbit woes. Anise is still carefully exploring the deck for opportunities though she hasn't been barking like she did before. The family may have moved on.

Half-Way

For several days now whenever we have let Anise outside to run around and get out some of the crazies she has been trying to get under our deck and, failing, barking animatedly. This is the same thing she does when there is a rabbit out of reach (in the neighbors yard, across the street) and she is excited by the possibility but frustrated by the circumstances. This morning she found a way under the deck and shortly thereafter a rabbit did emerge. A very small rabbit.

I have no idea what transpired under our deck this morning. The rabbit that emerged had a small amount of blood around its mouth and one eye appeared to have been permanently damaged. It was making small, pathetic squeaking sounds and was laid out on its back, chest heaving but otherwise unmoving.

What do you do with a half-way dead infant wild rabbit?

We couldn't leave it laying there but we had and have no interest in a baby rabbit for another pet. We choose to give it shelter for the morning, to try to make it as comfortable as possible. We fully expected it to be dead within the hour and made a home that would be easy to bury when the time came. I found a spot in our basement that they dogs can't get to and where its nice and cool. I left two ice cubes in the improvised water tray we were using along with a portion of a leaf of lettuce and small strawberry before I went to school that morning.

This evening when I returned it was still alive. It seemed to be resting and though not moving around in traditional rabbit style, it was clearly still able to move. We're going to try to assess the situation more clearly this evening.

The end game isn't very clear to me. Do we hope to nurse it back to health and set it free? Where is its mother? What if it has been permanently injured in a way that will make it impossible to survive on its own?

Its hard to say what were going to do with this little fur-ball our dog thrust into our lives.

Its not clear from the photo but the little guy is only a few inches long, more like a mouse than a rabbit.

Basil Goes to the Barber

We've got two outdoor-oriented trips in the near future that our dogs will be joining us on and to cut down on the amount of bramble that Basil collects in his fur, we took him and for a haircut (and bath, ear-cleaning, and nail trimming). We hope this well also help him be more comfortable in the coming hot summer months. Take a look at these very professionally done before-and-after photos.

Just the Simple Truth (Mostly)

Check out this little article I stumbled upon in my blogger reading today: Just the Simple Truth. For those of you who are a little bit more lazy here's a pertinent part where the author is quoting President Obama: "But after the Democrats and Republicans committed to fiscal discipline during the 1990s, we lost our way in the decade that followed. We increased spending dramatically for two wars and an expensive prescription drug program-but we didn't pay for any of this new spending. Instead, we made the problem worse with trillions of dollars in upaid-for tax cuts-tax cuts that went to every millionaire and billionaire in the country; tax cuts that will force us to borrow an average of $500 billion every year over the next decade." Let's parse this paragraph and look at the basic assertions the President is making in this speech, stripped of their rhetorical ornamentation.

1. Both parties were involved in "fiscal discipline" during the 1990s. (I believe this is a reference to balanced budget we had for a few years in the late 90s.)


2. Spending increased significantly during the 2000s thanks to two wars and Medicare part D.


3. Tax cuts during the 2000s prevented a lot of revenue from being collected from those in the highest tax bracket.

Assuming my interpretation of item one is correct, all of these assertions can be shown to be true.
I don't want to get into the policy angle of whether the extra spending on wars and Medicare was a good idea or the decision to reduce tax income as a whole. Clearly, though, we can say that this combination did not end up working out well in terms of balancing the budget. I know there are plenty of people out there that are philosophically committed to trickle-down economics but in this case the lower taxes rates didn't generate more tax dollars and the budget got way out of balance. Its worth noting that Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan's assertion that "the more you tax something, the less of it you get" may be true; our budget wasn't balanced through the 2000s, though. It didn't seem to work for that decade.
Here's my main point: assuming the above three facts are true, their validity is a red herring in the larger problem of our national debt. Here's one of many graphs you can find online showing our annual federal deficit over the years, this one in terms of GDP rather than just dollars (to try to level out effects of economic growth).


The simple truth that isn't acknowledged by the President or stated in the article I linked to is that the "fiscal discipline" that resulted in a budget surplus for a few years at the end of the 90s was an aberration. From 2011 all the way back to the 1960s it is clear that this period of time is the only one where we had a balanced budget for any significant length of time. It appears there are a few toe-dips into balanced-budget territory over the last half-century but they are minor and are in no way equivalent to the massive overspending that happened in all the remaining years.
We have a systemic problem. For many years now, our country has not been living within its means and this is a trend that we cannot afford any longer. We need to get serious about our problem and make some hard choices. We can not continue to borrow money for government programs and somehow expect to never have to pay it back. There are good programs that are working well that we will need to cut; there are tax breaks that seem fair and good that will have to be removed. We are so far in debt and it is unreasonable to expect that we can get back to living within our means without making significant sacrifices. Our expectations and lifestyles covertly subsidized through our government in the form of low taxes and expensive government programs are unsustainable.
I'll end with the political finger-pointing. Republicans, you have abandoned any claim of being fiscally responsible based on your performance this past decade. I know you believe in lower taxes but you have to also believe in lower spending as well. In fact, during times of national crisis like the launch of our war on terror, you might even need to increase taxes to pay for the military activity or cut other programs so that our budget can stay balanced. Wars don't pay for themselves and emergency overspending for a few years needs to be followed with determined underspending to pay all that debt back.
Democrats, specifically President Obama, its hard for us to take you seriously as a man determined to balance the budget. You inherited a difficult situation in 2008 and choose to try to spend your way out of it. You and your allies are the ones responsible for the spike in the national deficit at the far right-hand end of the graph. You too need to find a way to generate huge budget surpluses to counter-act the huge spending we just went through.
To both parties I say this: I have a house that is always falling apart, a car that needs repair even more regularly and family members who get sick. I understand that there are months that we need to spend more than we make because of these emergencies that pop up. But you know what happens next month? We spend less to make up for it and replenish any emergency savings that has been depleted. Nobody would let me overspend for 35 out of the last 40 years of my life and call me fiscally responsible. They wouldn't lend me a dime.

Season Change

I just turned off the gas to our furnace and turned on our the fan to cool the house off this morning. I think its officially the start of the warm season.

I didn't quite get the timing right this year with the amount of kerosene that I bought for our indoor heater: there's about half a gallon left in the tank of the heater. I guess I'm just going to have to burn it off outside; I doubt the house will be cold enough in the next month or two to justify using it.

This "shoulder" period between winter and summer (I hear some people call it "spring") is the best few weeks to live in Wichita. The highs during the day are not astronomical and the lows at night are cool enough to feel a tiny bit chilly. The trees are starting to bloom, grass everywhere is getting green, and I don' need to bundle up to walk the dogs in the morning.

This is much different than summer here, which is oppressively hot and humid. Nobody wants to be outside and its hard to image how people lived here without air conditioners. The overnight lows are often 80'F; it just never cools off. Being in the city probably doesn't help; maybe outside of town where the wind and blow more to cool things off would help.

Renewable Energy

I'm officially in my first semester of my PhD at Wichita State studying power systems and am taking a class this semester on renewable energy integration. There is debate in some circles regarding the necessity of using these renewable energy sources; much of this debate tend to be centered around the urgency of regulating carbon emissions from traditional power sources.

Another perspective, the one that I think about often, considers the fact that non-renewable energy sources have a severe and obvious limitation: they are not renewable and will run out at some point. All of these fossil fuels are produced by geological processes that we cannot reproduce or replicate in an economically feasible way. These natural resources are a blessing in that we have found ways of relatively easily converting them into a variety of specific refined fuels. The raw resources will run out at some point, though. Unfortunately, the ease of extraction and refinement of fossil fuels have resulted in relatively low costs and promoted the expansion of the use of these fuels. The seemingly limitless supply of fossil fuels leads makes it easier and easier to continue to use them and harder and harder to try to look for alternatives. For decades now Presidents of the United States have got it right in saying that we as a nation are addicted to oil.

The reality, though, is that these fossil fuels will run out at some time in the future and we are so dependent on them that it is hard right now to even imagine our way of living without the pervasive and ready access to fossil fuels. Nearly 100% of our transportation infrastructure from cars to aircraft to cargo ships use only fossil fuels. Most of the electricity in the United States is produced by burning fossil fuels; even electric cars use fossil fuels, albeit in an indirect manner. Even as gasoline fuel prices continue to rise, we in the United States have not reached the point where we are ready to consider serious changes in our lifestyle. We complain; talk is cheap.

To those of you who think the day where we will reach critical levels in our fossil fuel supply is many decade (or even a century) away, well, you may be right. For all of our sake, let us hope that this is the case; we need the time to make these renewable energy sources viable alternatives to the existing system. This brings me to my first point: now is the time to invest (heavily) in these alternative systems. If we wait until the situation is urgent, until we are critically low on fossil fuels to start looking for alternatives, we'll be too late. Gradual change is almost always easier to manage than rapid change. A change this large cannot occur easily and there are many technical and operational challenges that still need to be overcome. As a self-declared representative of all technical professionals in this field I plead with you: give us this time to get this right. This means investing in the technology long before it is profitable and spending the money to research how we need to change our system to accommodate the coming reality.

And again to those of you who think that fossil fuels aren't running out soon I would add this: our society has mis-estimated the bounds of limitless resources in the past. The prevailing opinion for much of the time the Pacific Northwest was settled by white-folk was that both the forest and the fish were effectively infinite. These natural resources seemed so expansive and seemingly immeasurable that there was no effort to moderate their use. The trees and the fish were harvested for many decades until their numbers dwindled so severely that it was clear there were limits to what we thought of as limitless. Now, to preserve these resources for future generations, we try to limit their consumption, especially in the case of trees where it takes several decades to naturally replace what we use.

Considering the non-renewable nature of the fossil fuels we have become highly dependent on and our increasing appetite for them, the day is coming when they will become so expensive so as to be unaffordable. On that day, the lifestyle we in the United States have come to expect will come to a halt. The only way this can be avoided is to prepare now for this eventuality and rebuild our energy infrastructure to be re-orientated around alternative energy sources. The future we want is one where fossil fuels never become expensive because the demand has been radically reduced due to viable alternatives becoming better economic choices. Gasoline would never become prohibitively expensive because nobody will have a use for them; better alternatives will exist. The future we want is one we can create if we choose to start preparing for it now.

National Budget Visualized

Here's a great visual depiction of the budget President Obama has proposed, put together by the NY Times. Items of notes:

• According this this USA today graph, this budget is still larger than the federal income. We are still spending more than we make, like we have for several decades now. Under Obama's budget, we are going to add $1.1 trillion to our debt.
• Our interest on the existing national debt is s$474 billion this year, up 14% from last year.
• It is clear that the biggest spending is, as I have often asserted, in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Defense (ignoring the interest on the national debt since we really can't do anything about that except pay it).
• Most of the money in this budget is considered "mandatory" spending, meaning that previously enacted legislation (such as the Social Security Act) requires a certain level of spending. New legislation could be passed to overturn these mandatory spending requirements (such as a End Social Security Act, to make up an example) but the money funding the programs created by previous legislation is not up for grabs as a part of the regular budgeting process.
• The big spender not in the mandatory spending pool (called "discretionary" spending) is defense spending. Defense spending is the only one of the Big Three that can be changed without passing additional legislation.
• During the Bush years it was common for the normal budget to be augmented by "emergency" spending bills to fund the wars. This money is outside of the normal budget process and thus does not show up in the kind of graph the NY Times has put together. I don't know whether President Obama has any emergency spending legislation he is going to propose or not.
• Finally, just to be clear, the President doesn't officially get to set the budget for the year; he can only sign or veto a spending bill that Congress passes. Obama's budget is an opening bid in what will be probably a long negotiation before a final bill is arrived at that all parties can live with.

Short

Below is a fantastic little short movie that I'm watching on a regular basis now because it reminds me so much of where I grew up and what I love about it.

Growing is Forever from Jesse Rosten on Vimeo.

This Week in the Weather

A week ago it was 70 degrees outside. Today the high was 28 degrees. In the past week we had several inches of snow, some relatively fierce winds, and two days when Wichita State University cancelled classes. One of my professors who has been at the school 25 years says he can only remember one other time the school has closed due to weather.

It has been a cold week.

On the upside, pictures of the dogs in the snow are always kind of fun.

Seen today in the neighborhood

Tron: Legacy

I convinced my brother in-law that we should go see "Tron: Legacy" while he was in town recently and we choose to lay out the big bucks and go see it at the newly opened IMAX. Oh, and it was in 3D. The only 3D movie I'd seen before this was "Avatar" and while it was nice, I wasn't convinced that it was worth the extra three or four dollars. This opinion was reinforced by commentary I had read around the web that "Avatar" had the best implementation of 3D as it was actually filmed with two cameras while most of the other 3D movies had been made so in post-production.

I didn't have high expectations of "Tron: Legacy" and was just hoping for an entertaining show: lots of cool looking things on screen with the thinnest of plots to hold the excitement together. Seeing it in 3D IMAX was a novelty, I reasoned, something new to try out. My preconceptions were more or less accurate but were understatements of the reality. "Tron: Legacy" in 3D IMAX an experience more than a movie. I can't say that the plot was superb or the extremely well-written but nearly every other aspect of the film is excellent. The use of 3D is very well done and adds much to the movie, much more than I remember in "Avatar". The visuals are stunning, integrate well with and strongly develop the style of the movie, and are exceedingly enjoyable. Costumes and sets were similarly unique and impressive.

The surprise to me, though, was the the music and sound. This was more than good use of orchestral scoring; it was an embrace of synthesized, manipulated, stretched and compressed alteration of traditional music into a unique sound that, again, adds so much in defining the style and feel of the whole film. I don't feel that the audio overshadowed the visuals just that they were not neglected in light of all the effort of making a visually stunning movie. I'm tempted to buy the score of the film because it was so unique and powerful.

I don't think "Tron: Legacy" would have struck with me so deeply if I hadn't seen it first in IMAX 3D. If you have the option of seeing it that way I would recommend it; its probably the only way I would recommend this movie. In this way the movie is a work of art; the experience of seeing it will not be replicated well onto a more conventional screen and even less so into a home setting. It will be like the difference between an original oil and a picture of the same work in an art textbook.

Its hard to compare this movie to others because it is so much more of an experience than simply a movie. There are much better films out there that don't derive their value from special effects or visual spectacle. But its hard to say that "Tron: Legacy" is better or worse than any of these because its value is so much in the presentation. Pick your favorite movie and even if you were able to see it again on the big screen right now, it would be a completely different experience than "Tron: Legacy".

Maybe that's the best way to think about it. "Tron: Legacy" has brought back something special to the movies. You will either see it in its fullest form or you won't but there won't be any second chances. Once it leaves the theater, there really won't be any way to get the full meal deal. Its like performance art in that way; a one-time experience that can't be replicated. If you can afford the $12 to $15 per ticket I strongly recommend that make an effort to go see this. You won't walk away with inner contemplations about the plot or characters but you can't help to be entertained.

It is the best movie of little consequence I have ever seen.

100% Official

As of yesterday, I have completed all the requirements for my Master's degree. I took my final test of the semester (Statistics) and received confirmation from the graduate school that all my paperwork was in order and that my thesis had been officially accepted.

The graduation ceremony was this past Sunday and I attended but had chosen not to walk, mainly because I'm staying on for my PhD making the ceremony very anti-climactic. I attended the ceremony to see a good friend of mine get his PhD and while waiting for the ceremony to start, I was thumbing through the program. There I was, listed as completed my Master's along with my thesis title. Even for me, a person who doesn't care much for ceremony, this was a little weird. I felt like I should run up on stage and get in line will all the other Master's students. I was literally just a few hundred feet away from being able to participate in the ceremony.

For me now, school will just continue for a while. Classes start up again in mid-January and I'll be attending the normal three lecture classes, just like I have for the past five semesters. Looking at my estimated schedule for the next few years, it doesn't look like things start to change much until spring 2011 when I begin taking my dissertation hours. Each semester from that point on I spend more and more time on my official schedule working on my dissertation until I complete it in the spring of 2013. At least that's how thing stand now; all of this is subject to change and probably this spring I'll be submitting more paperwork to get this schedule of mine officially approved as worthy of PhD work.

There is a hiccup that I already know of in my schedule. The Engineering and Education departments recently got together to form a program specifically geared towards graduate students in engineering who plan on a career in academia, like me. By taking four specific graduate level education classes, I will be able to earn a Certificate in Engineering Education. The problem: the engineering graduate department may not recognize any of those education courses as "counting" towards earning a PhD. This means that if any engineering student wants to earn this certificate, he or she will have to take these four courses on top of the normal course load for a PhD. Nothing is completely decided yet but it seems counter-productive to me to working across departments like this to get the program in place and then to construct additional barriers to prevent students from actually participating in the program. Methinks the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.

You Balance the Budget

In terms of posts to this blog, I've written a lot about the Federal deficit and balancing the budget. This is one more item on that list.

The New York Times has an interactive feature on their website that allows everyday normal people like us to take a stab at balancing the budget and getting our national debt under control. The interface is simple: there are a list of options that each make a dent in the budget problem and you go through and check the ones that get you to a balanced budget. Its easy to use and gives you a very tangible handle on what it will take to make our federal government fiscally responsible.

Go ahead and give it a try. Spread the word. Start thinking seriously about what it will take for our government to start acting like grown-ups when it comes to money.

Cranberry Sauce

Do you make your own cranberry sauce for Thanksgiving (or any other holiday meal) or do you buy it in a can? If you don't make your own cranberry sauce you really should. Its just too easy and too fun to pass up. You can buy a bag of cranberries for a few dollars, add some sugar and water and heat it all up until the berry begin to burst. That's right, I said burst; its like making popcorn with fruit! (There are plenty of more detailed recipes out there if you feel you need more detailed instructions but really, its that simple and hard to get wrong.)

Sure, its cheaper, easier, and faster to buy the sauce in a can but the two don't really even compare. Unless you're really strapped for cash and/or time, spend the extra two bucks and fifteen minutes to make the sauce yourself. Or better yet, get some quality kitchen time with a family member or friend and recruit them to do it.

Fresh cranberries will be readily available in the US for several more weeks so don't wait. I'm betting once you try it, you'll never go back. I haven't.

First snow of the season

Its not accumulating here in Wichita but it is snowing. See for yourself

Master Hardy

It's all but official. I defended my thesis this last Friday and now just have some editing, probably a bit more formatting, and hopefully just a tiny amount of paperwork to do before I have earned my Master of Science in Electrical Engineering from Wichita State. Oh, and I need to pass my classes this semester as well. On a practical level things don't change much for me, though. I'm continuing on with my PhD so I have many more semesters to go before this is all done.

We'll, here's a mostly completed, almost perfect draft version of my thesis. Feel free to read, enjoy, and ask questions. Or you can just smile and now and not worry about it. Whatever.

Basil's new trick

We've been working with Basil to train him to go and get the paper in the morning; we anticipate this trick being very handy for the coming winter months. Here's a demonstration from this morning:

The word is spreading!

David Leonhardt must have been reading my blog because, on a nationally syndicated radio program (Marketplace), echoed nearly exactly (almost verbatim) what I've been saying about what it will take to balance the budget. We've got the make big cuts in one of the following: Medicare, Social Security, or defense and/or raise taxes. The most politically fleasible option will probably involve modest changes to many or most of these.

The message is getting out! You heard it here first (maybe)!

Everyday Amazing

That's how I'd describe this video; its an example of everyday amazing. There are cooler videos out there, I'm sure and other people have done similar things but here is a pretty normal looking guy who wants to do something at least slightly extraordinary: make a spacecraft. And he does. And captures some footage that can best be described as awesome in the traditional sense of the word.

Watch it full screen in a dark room. Prepare to be amazed.

Homemade Spacecraft from Luke Geissbuhler on Vimeo.

Before Congress gets back to balancing the budget...

I know I just wrote about this a few posts ago but one of my favorite podcasts (Planet Money) mentioned a report that effectively gave a receipt showing how are federal tax dollars are spent. The categories they chose to track seem a bit arbitrary but its worth taking a look at. And the top 3: Defense, Social Security, Health Insurance.

The report also referenced a few other great websites that try to get a handle on the same data. WhatWePayFor.com lets you plug in your salary and generate a dollar-amount break-down for your tax bill and the National Priorities Project has a Tax Day page that does a similar thing in less detail.

Health Insurance and Me

I've ranted about this before: I have no love for the health insurance I currently have. There are many things to complain about but the one that is troubling me most lately is the plan's attempt to portray its bugs and difficulties as features; I'm talking about consumer-driven health-care. The theory behind these plans place the health insurance policy-holders in the role as consumer and thus place the responsibility of controlling health-care costs in said policy-holders hands. By placing the burden on the policy-holders to make the financial choices on how the health-care dollars are spent, a more direct relationship between those paying for the care and those receiving the care is formed. Financial self-interest becomes a factor in making health-care choices and the policy-holders/patients don't freely spend money when they think of it as theirs rather than the insurance companies.

I like the theory but the way my insurance is set up now it utterly defeats any attempt to make this work in practice. I found this out again when I tried to price out the total cost I will have to pay for a minor procedure I have soon. Due to specialization, fragmentation, multiple providers and a complicated billing system, it is practically impossible to determine the cost for this procedure before I actually get a bill in the mail. I can get a price for the doctor performing the procedure and I can get a price for procedure (if its at the only in-network hospital here in town but it could be at any other number of smaller clinics who charge their own prices). I can't, though, get a price for the anesthesiologist who will be helping during the procedure because nobody, not the doctor, not the hospital, knows who that will be anytime closer than a day or two before the procedure. Getting the incomplete prices I did took me three or four hours of phone calls.

To state it plainly, my health insurance company forces me to go shopping for the my health care providers and when I do, I find out that nothing has price tags. It is virtually impossible to try to manage my health care costs the way my insurance company says I should. The health insurance company wants to make it seem that by shopping around I can control my health care costs but I know this isn't true and it is hard to imagine that health insurance executives don't know this as well. Besides, would you choose a surgeon, radiologist, or oncologist you had never met to perform a one-time medical procedure because he or she was the most affordable? I can't think of anybody who would unless they had no choice. And don't even get me started on in- and out-of network, deductibles, co-insurance, co-pays, and the cyclical billing routine between medical service provider, insurance company and patient.

I've made this challenge before and I'll make it again: I double-dog dare you to try to find out the price you will actually have to pay for any given medical procedure a priori. Unless it is not much more than a simple visit to your everyday doctor where no testing is done (and what doctor do you know that doesn't want to "run a few tests" while you're there) you will not be able to get a price of any value before you actually go in.

At least I can't. Not one accurate enough to be useful, that is.

Recently heard on campus...

"I'm addicted to feeding the squirrels."

More on Federal Spending

I recently found an interesting report outlining how the income and expenditures of the federal government broken out by state. In partcular, the report highlighted the fact that there are some states in the union that historically consume more tax dollars than they generate; they are subsidized by the country as a whole. Conversely, there are states that generate more in taxes than they receive from the government.

Take a look at the report here and see where your favorite state (or maybe the states you love to hate) stack up. The most important columns are the last two showing the received-to-spending ratio (values over $1.00 mean the state was subsidized, values less than $1.00 mean the state did the subsidizing) and the ranking of the state in terms of dollars received.

I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to decide whether citizens should be proud or not of their states' abilities to attract federal spending. Some call it "bringing home the bacon" and they vote based on who they think can bring the most money to the state. When it comes to tax dollars, though, its a zero-sum game; federal dollars flowing into the state have to come from somewhere and it will largley be taxes collected from another state. This is another way to look at federal taxes as wealth redistribution: money moving from "rich" states to "poor" states (or something like that).